Economic Forecast, July 2015

        The economic forecast for the U.S. for July 2015 is mostly positive.  The unemployment rate is at 5.3% according to the Department of Labor (DOL, 2015).  On the week ending July 11, unemployment insurance claims were their lowest since 1973 (DOL, 2015).  Inflation is low and energy costs are down for American consumers.  The Fed is indicating that interest rates will be raised later in the year.  The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee on June 16-17, 2015, state that GDP growth was increasing modestly in the second quarter, along with real personal consumption expenditures (PCE).  Real disposable income rose with increasing home values (Fed, 2015).  This is confirmed with the S&P/Case Schiller US National Home Price (20-City) monthly increase of 1.87% on May 18, 2015 (S&P DJI, 2015).  This all needs to be supported with the official release of the economic data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for the second quarter, 2015.  The BEA will release the new data on July 30, 2015.  
          
Copyright © July, 2015 by Clint Kennedy